Samar was fascinated by the “old money” families in his city. He’d read countless articles about their ancestral mansions, their prestigious schools, their effortless success. He admired their seemingly charmed lives, their smooth transitions from one generation of wealth to the next. He decided to write a blog post about them, interviewing several scions of these families.

He spoke with Charles, a fourth-generation owner of a successful manufacturing company. Charles talked about the family’s long history of innovation, their business decisions, and their commitment to philanthropy. He painted a picture of a dynasty built on hard work and foresight. Samar was impressed.

He then interviewed Eleanor, whose family owned a chain of luxury hotels. She recounted stories of strategic investments, clever market analysis, and a dedication to providing unparalleled customer service. Again,Samar was struck by their family’s genius.

Samar’s blog post was a hit. He portrayed these families as paragons of business acumen, their success a testament to their superior skills and judgment. Readers were captivated by the stories of inherited wealth and effortless achievement.

What Samar didn’t consider, however, were the families who hadn’t survived. The families whose fortunes had dwindled, whose businesses had collapsed, whose names had faded from the social register. He hadn’t interviewed them. He hadn’t heard their stories of bad luck, poor decisions, or changing market conditions. By focusing only on the survivors, the families who had maintained their wealth and status,Samar created a distorted picture of reality. He overlooked the many who had fallen by the wayside, leading to an inaccurate and overly optimistic view of dynastic success.

This illustrates the survivorship bias where focusing only on successful stories gives the wrong idea because we don’t see all the failures.