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Hindsight Bias

Tendency to see past events as better than they actually were, leading to overconfidence in our ability to predict future experiences.

Hindsight Bias

Amit had never considered himself an expert in stock trading, but one day, he decided to take a chance. After reading a few online articles and watching some videos, he invested a significant amount of money in a rising tech startup. Within months, the stock skyrocketed, tripling his investment.

Looking back, Amit convinced himself that he had seen the potential all along. “I knew this company was going to take off,” he told his friends. “It was obvious from the start.” Encouraged by his success, he began investing more aggressively, believing he had a natural talent for picking winning stocks.

However, his next few investments didn’t go as planned. The companies he bet on struggled, and he lost more money than he had made. Confused, he revisited his earlier success. The truth was, he hadn’t analyzed the market deeply or made a strategic decision—he had simply been lucky. But hindsight bias made him believe his past success was due to skill, not chance.

Hindsight Bias highlights the tendency to look back at past events and believe they were more predictable than they actually were. Because his first investment was successful, he assumed he had always known it would be. This overconfidence led him to ignore the role of luck and take bigger risks, ultimately resulting in losses. Recognizing hindsight bias helps us make more measured decisions instead of assuming past success guarantees future results.

Next Read

Scarcity Bias

Tendency to value limited or scarce resources more highly than those that are abundantly available.

Small Win Bias – Gratification Bias

Tendency to prioritizes or value short-term rewards over long-term benefits.

The Cheating Bias

Dishonest behavior by getting influenced to do so when observing others, leading to unethical practices.

Sisyphus Effect

Tendency to give up when there is no gratification or visible meaning / output to efforts.

The IKEA Effect

People tend to value an object more if they contribute to its creation.

Dunning Kruger Effect

Overestimating one’s knowledge due to a lack of understanding about the complexity of a subject.

Decoy Option Effect

Influences preferences by introducing a less attractive intermediate option, subtly steering choices towards more profitable alternatives.

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one’s prior beliefs or values.

Spotlight Effect

The tendency to believe that we are being noticed more than we really are.

Anchoring Bias

People rely heavily on the first piece of information (the “anchor”), even if it’s irrelevant.

Current Mood Bias

It is a distortion in cognition and decision making due to the present emotional state.

Prestige Bias

The tendency to favor the opinions of individuals or groups with higher social status or authority even when not in the same field.

Social Desirability Bias

Tendency to respond to or behave in a way that is socially acceptable or desirable, rather than expressing their true opinions or behaviors.

Recency Bias

The tendency to better recall recent information and events while ignoring older information.

Restraint Bias

The tendency to overestimate the level of control we have over our impulsive behaviors.

Survivorship Bias

The tendency to focus on the individuals or things that have “survived” or succeeded, while overlooking data from those that have not.

Response Bias

Tendency to provide inaccurate or false answers during surveys or interviews.

First impression Bias

The tendency to form lasting opinions based on initial experiences.

Omission Bias

Tendency to avoid taking action due to fear or uncertainty, even when not taking action could be more harmful.

Bundling Bias

The tendency of buying things that are sold together, even if we don’t need everything in the bundle. Think of this as the “package deal effect.”

Distinction Bias

In decision making, we tend to overvalue the minor differences between two almost similar options when we examine them together.

Projection Bias

Individuals overestimate the prevalence of their own thoughts, beliefs, preferences, and knowledge in others.

Salience Bias

Our tendency to focus on items or information that are more noteworthy while ignoring those that do not grab our attention.

Diversification Bias

Spreading our resources thinly across numerous options instead of concentrating on a few.

Pessimism Bias

A tendency to believe things will go wrong even when there is no evidence to support it.

Optimism Bias

Tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes and underestimate the negative ones.

Bandwagon Effect

It refers to our habit of adopting certain behaviors or beliefs because many other people do the same.

Framing Bias

Equivalent information can be more or less attractive depending on how it is presented, influencing our decisions.

Recall Bias

Individuals do not accurately remember past events or experiences or leave out details while reporting about them.

Group Think Bias

A group of individuals reaches a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the consequences or alternatives, simply doing or agreeing because everyone else is.